Freddy Kruger Strikes on Final Spring Weekend

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Freddy Kruger returns to the multiplex this weekend, after a 16 year hiatus, to easily dominate the final weekend before the all-important summer movie season. With current titles not clicking or fading, the box office will slump to its lowest point of the year, giving a slow close to an otherwise powerful spring. Either way, the road is clear for “Iron Man 2” to monopolize the marketplace next weekend, when it opens summer with a mighty bang.

Hollywood loves horror remakes, and this weekend New Line/Warner Bros. reboots their most prominent, “A Nightmare on Elm Street.” The R-rated film finds Jackie Earl Haley taking over for Robert Englund and Freddy Kruger, and costars Kellen Lutz of “Twilight” fame. Starpower is not the selling point here, however; it’s the “Elm Street” brand that’s the biggest draw. Moviegoers have been very nice to the horror remake genre in recent years. Last year, the reboot of “Friday the 13th” took in a brutal $40M on President’s Day weekend, though some of the worst legs in history forced a finish of just $65M. “Elm Street” may not open that high, since late April is slower than February, but it could be in the same arena as “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre” (2003), “Dawn of the Dead” (2004) and “The Amityville Horror” (2005). All thee opened in the $23-28M range. The coming weeks will not be kind with intense summer competition, but short term success is likely. Attacking teenagers in 3,150 theaters, “A Nightmare on Elm Street” could slash up $25M this weekend.

Aiming for a less violent family crowd, Summit opens “Furry Vengeance,” starring Brendan Fraser, Brooke Shields and slapstick animals. It will be an uphill battle, since the premise is uninspired, and Brendan Fraser is no guarantee when it comes to family films. In July 2008, “Journey to Center of the Earth” earned a cool $101M, but the following January, “Inkheart” stumbled to a pitiful $17M. Essentially, this is just Summit trying to squeeze some family dollars in between the DreamWorks duo of “How to Train You Dragon” and “Shrek: The Final Chapter.” The opening will not be a disaster, but it won’t be anything to write home about either. Building in 2,800 theaters, “Furry Vengeance” will find around $12M for the weekend.

Due to weak new releases, “How to Train Your Dragon” resurfaced at number one last weekend, but will slip lower again. Brendan Fraser will steal away some families, but the beloved toon will still hold up well because of its amazing popularity. Paramount should see a solid decline of 33%, which would give the studio $10M for the weekend, and spectacular total of $192M. Declines will get steep with the studio unleashing its Iron Man and Shrek sequels, but the $200M mark will be broken next weekend.

“Date Night” and “The Back-Up Plan” will round out the top five, and remain the top choices for adults. Fox will see a better hold for “Date Night” since it has far better word-of-mouth than CBS Films’ “The Back-Up Plan.” Tina Fey’s comedy may fall but about 30%, while Jennifer Lopez could see a 50% decline, and both will take in $7M this weekend. Those declines would put “Date Night” at a strong $73M, and “The Back-Up Plan” at a mediocre $23M.

The summer movie season started a week earlier in the past two years, so comparisons to 2009 and 2008, when “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” and “Iron Man” respectively took in $85M and $98M, would be irrelevant.