Four Films to Close Out Spring Box Office

A week before The Avengers kicks off summer, four new films brave the last weekend of April. Laughers The Five-Year Engagement and Pirates! Band of Misfits have the best chance for success, while the serious pics The Raven and Safe should see softer numbers. Overall, the box office should trail last year when Fast Five gave summer an early jolt with its record bow.

Universal has its sights on number one with The Five-Year Engagement. As an R-rated wedding-comedy from Judd Apatow, the film being positioned as like sequel to Bridesmaids, which makes sense given that sleeper’s popularity. Though it won’t reach the heights of the Kristin Wiig vehicle, Engagement has a lot going for it, including the perennially-popular wedding genre and two well-liked stars in Jason Siegel and Emily Blunt. Though The Lucky One and Think Like a Man will collect over $20M this weekend, the R-rated pic has far better reviews than either, which help sell the film to older adults. The last collaboration between director Nick Stroller and Siegel was Forgetting Sarah Marshall, which bowed to $17.7M in April 2008. The new film should open a tad above that before holding its own against May’s testosterone onslaught. Opening in over 2,800 theaters, The Five-Year Engagement could see $22M this weekend.

Targeting a younger audience, Sony opens the claymation pic Pirates! Band of Misfits. Aardman Animation, though well-respected, is not known for big box office. The British studio sees modest openings in the mid $10M range, and nothing suggests Pirates will bow higher. Pirate movies aren’t exactly popular right now and the 3D toon boasts little appeal to older kids. However, good reviews and few family options will be assets. Sailing into over 3,000 theaters, The Pirates! Band of Misfits could see $12M this weekend.

Following a disastrous showing in the U.K., Relativity opens the period-chiller The Raven. The R-rated John Cusack vehicle has Edgar Allen Poe investigating murders based on his stories. The actor boasts starpower in the horror genre, but with negative buzz and weak reviews, The Raven will struggle to find paying customers right before The Avengers. Opening in 2,000 theaters, The Raven could see $9M this weekend.

Lastly, Lionsgate bows the Jason Statham actioner Safe. Statham’s action pics typically open around $10M before closing under $40M, and the kidnapping thriller is unlikely to breakout. The actor’s usual fans should come out, but this is just a one-week appetizer before The Avengers. Opening in 2,200 theaters, Safe could see $8M this weekend.

Backed with great buzz, Think Like a Man should hold well despite Engagement stealing adults. A 45% drop to $18M would give Sony a smashing ten-day tally of $59M.

The Lucky One faces no direct competition, but will suffer from a built-in audience. Warner Bros. could see a 50% drop to $11M and $41M in ten days.

Regaining IMAX screens for a one-week engagement, The Hunger Games could see a 35% drop $9M and a staggering total of $368M for Lionsgate.

After a solid Earth Day opening, Chimpanzee will see a typical Disneynature slip. A 50% tumble to $5M would give the chimp doc $20M in ten days.

Overall, the box office should trail 2011, when Fast Five raced to furious April record of $86.2M, but top 2010, when A Nightmare on Elm Street scared up a creepy $32.9M.