Pair of Date Movies Battle for #1

Two book adaptations titles will battle for number one, as the tearjerker The Lucky One and the dating comedy Think Like a Man face off. Set for smaller numbers, the nature doc Chimpanzee opens in time for Earth Day. The box office is set to slip below year-ago levels, when the frame was boosted by Easter.

Warner Bros. targets young women with the romantic drama The Lucky One. Based on a novel by Nicolas Sparks, the PG-13 weeper stars Zac Efron and aims for the same audience that powered Dear John to a $30.4M bow in February 2010. However, that Channing Tatum vehicle bowed close to Valentine’s Day and boasted a bankable female lead in Amanda Seyfried. Instead, The Lucky One may open closer to Efron’s 17 Again, which opened this weekend in 2009 with $23.7M. As with most Sparks adaptations, reviews have been very negative, but Efron’s young fans won’t care. Competition should not be too fierce with both Titanic 3D and The Hunger Games aging. Opening in 3,100 theaters, The Lucky One could see $23M this weekend.

Sony counters with a funnier date movie in Think Like a Man. The Screen Gems title, based on Steve Harvey’s bestseller, boasts starpower from Kevin Hart, Taraji P. Henson, Chris Brown and many others. The PG-13 film should easily connect with an African-American audience that has been underserved this year. Funny trailers and the book’s popularity will outweigh lackluster reviews, though a low theater count could cap grosses. Opening in a modest 1,800 theaters, Think Like a Man could pull in $21M this weekend.

Lastly, Disneynature goes after families with the wildlife doc Chimpanzee. The studio began releasing Earth Day docs in 2009 and returns have diminished as the subjects become more specific. Openings include $8.8M for 2009’s earth, $6.05M for 2010’s Oceans and $6M for last year’s African Cats. The former two saw midweek launches, while the latter had a Good Friday boost. Even though family competition has been light this year, nothing suggests the Tim Allen-narrated pic will go beyond the last two films. Opening in 1,500 theaters, Chimpanzee could see $6M this weekend.

After a month on top, The Hunger Games will slip from the pole. Facing two new films targeting females, a 45% drop to $11M is likely, giving Lionsgate a staggering total of $351M.

The Three Stooges has only mild buzz, so a 45% drop to $10M would give Fox’s bumbling comedy $30M in ten days, matching its budget.

With great reviews, A Cabin in the Woods will aim for a soft horror hold. A 50% tumble to $7M would give Lionsgate a ten-day total of $24M.

Overall, the box office should slip from 2011, when Rio remained at number one with $26.3M, but exceed 2010, when How to Train Your Dragon flew back on top with $15.3M. Easter fell this weekend in 2011.