Three New Pics Challenge Katniss Everdeen

Despite three new wide releases, The Hunger Games will make a valiant effort to lead for a fourth frame. Among new releases, The Three Stooges promises nostalgic TV-based laughs, while A Cabin in the Woods and Lockout target fanboys with their producers’ reputations. After several scorching weeks, the box office may finally take a bit of a hit.

The Farrelly Brothers’ dream project finally hits theaters with Fox’s The Three Stooges. After numerous actors dropped out, the TV adaptation stars Sean Hayes, Chris Diamantopoulos and Will Sasso as Larry, Curly and Moe. The directing brothers haven’t had a hit movie since 2011’s Shallow Hal, and the three leads offer little star power. This will swim or sink based on its nostalgia factor. Weak reviews will deter older adults, but the PG rating may attract families who’ve already seen Julia Roberts and Dr. Seuss. A drought of comedy options this year could help, but a big opening seems unlikely. Bumbling into over 3,400 theaters, The Three Stooges could see $13M this weekend.

Lionsgate offers the horror-comedy A Cabin in the Woods. The Joss Whedon (Buffy the Vampire Slayer) production stars Thor’s Chris Hemsworth and will appeal primarily to fanboys. The film was well received at last year’s Fantastic Fest, but that kind of acclaim rarely translates into strong sales from typical moviegoers. Though reviews have been sensational and it has a Friday the 13th bow, horror-comedies routinely struggle to appeal beyond a narrow audience. Opening in 2,300 theaters, A Cabin in the Woods could see $12M this weekend.

Lastly, FilmDistrict opens the sci-fi thriller Lockout. Produced by Luc Besson, the PG-13 flick stars Guy Pearce and Maggie Grace. With the exception of Taken, the French producer’s films usually open between $8-12M and Lockout doesn’t look to exceed that range. Starpower is low, reviews have been mixed and the simultaneous opening of A Cabin in the Woods will cause overlap. Entering over 2,000 theaters, Lockout could see $7M this weekend.

The Hunger Games will fight to spend a rare fourth weekend atop. With Good Friday boosting last week’s sales, Lionsgate could see a 50% tumble to $16M, giving the Katniss Everdeen pic an eye-popping $330M to date.

After a modest start, American Reunion will hope to see a respectable hold. Sequels aimed at young people fall hard though, especially after a holiday weekend. A 50% drop would give Universal $11M for the weekend and a ten-day tally of $41M.

Titanic 3D sailed to soft numbers last weekend, but James Cameron projects usually see low declines. With no new pics for adults, Paramount could see a 40% fall to $9M, giving the 3D conversion $42M in 12 days. 

Overall, the box office should match both 2011, when Rio took flight with a solid $39.2M, and 2010, when Kick-Ass bowed to a mild $19.8M.